How the big five leagues have started (and why the Bundesliga is miles ahead on goals)
The 
Bundesliga is averaging 3.81 goals per match. The 
Premier League, 2.82. That is almost a full goal between two leagues playing the same month. We are opening the MatchScan blog with a look at how the big five have started: who scores, who concedes, and what the numbers hide once you scratch the surface.
First, the boring but necessary warning: 
LaLiga has played seven rounds; the Premier League, 
Serie A and 
Ligue 1 are on five; the Bundesliga has played only four. That is why you will see averages and percentages here, never raw goal totals from one league against another, because comparing totals across different numbers of rounds tells you nothing. Individual player tallies are season totals.
Goals per match
Bundesliga3.81LaLiga3.04Serie A2.90Ligue 12.84Premier League2.82Bundesliga: four rounds and goals everywhere
Bundesliga · 4 rounds
Those 3.81 goals do not arrive alone. The Bundesliga takes 31.03 shots per match, puts 10.81 on target and wins 10.86 corners. Almost eight in every ten games finish with three goals or more: 77.8%, to be exact.
That said, it is four rounds. Four. With a sample that small, a couple of wild games drag the whole average, so treat this as a blurred photo rather than a portrait.
Dortmund lead with 12 points and a perfect record. Bayern and Freiburg follow two behind. Bayern have the best attack with 14 goals, and Dortmund and Bayern share the best defence, two conceded each. At the bottom it is grim: Mönchengladbach have yet to take a point and Union Berlin have one, with 17 goals against.
Five players are tied on four goals: Schick, Ebnoutalib, Olise, Tietz and Suzuki. But the tie is misleading. Schick has 17 shots and 2.94 xG; Suzuki, eight shots and 2.61 xG. xG measures chance quality, that is, how many goals you would expect from those attempts. Same haul, very different work behind it.
And a pointer for the coming weeks: Augsburg have 11 goals from 6.88 xG, 4.12 above what their chances suggest. It could be sharp finishing or it could be luck. After four rounds there is no way to tell them apart.
Premier League: plenty of shots, too few on target
Premier League · 5 rounds
The Premier League scores least of the five, at 2.82 goals per match. And yet it takes 27.86 shots per game. What breaks down is the final step: its 8.74 shots on target is the lowest average of the five leagues.
The result is a tighter competition than the rest. Draws account for 32% of matches and the home side wins only 36%.
City are the only team with a perfect record: five from five, 15 points. Arsenal are three behind. Brighton, on 10, have the league's best attack thanks to their 16 goals. Leeds are unbeaten in fifth with the best defence of the lot, three goals conceded. And Tottenham sit bottom with two points and two goals scored.
Haaland leads the scorers with five, from 20 shots and 4.42 xG, roughly what his chances call for. Isak has four. João Pedro, Groß and Cherki have three each. The odd one out is Cherki: three goals from 0.72 xG, a gap of +2.28. He is converting chances almost nobody converts.
Brighton do the same at team level, 16 goals against 10.99 xG, a +5.01. Sunderland are the exact mirror image: six goals and 10.00 xG. If either of them looks like a different side in October, it will be no surprise. But that is what the chances say, not a crystal ball.
LaLiga: seven rounds and nobody stops Barcelona
LaLiga · 7 rounds
LaLiga scores 3.04 goals per match and hands out 4.23 yellow cards, the highest booking average of the five. It adds 9.38 shots on target and 9.65 corners per game. Both teams score in 58% of matches, and 56.5% produce at least three goals.
Barcelona are on another plane: seven games, seven wins, 21 points and 31 goals, the league's best attack. Atlético and Betis are tied on 16 points and Real Madrid have 15. The best defence belongs to Alavés, six conceded. At the bottom, Málaga have three points and no wins.
Raphinha has 12 goals in 555 minutes from 8.84 xG, 3.16 above expectation. Behind him, tied on seven, come Lamine Yamal, Mbappé and Sergio Camello, and that is exactly where the numbers split. Camello has 2.53 xG, a +4.47. Mbappé posts 7.87 xG and a −0.87, meaning he is scoring slightly less than his chances suggest. Yamal adds four assists to his seven goals.
The same happens at team level: Atlético have 16 goals from 12.04 xG, Villarreal 13 from 16.83. Similar goal counts, opposite production.
Serie A: three leaders, three ways to win
Serie A · 5 rounds
With 2.90 goals and 9.60 shots on target per match, Serie A sits mid-table in this comparison. Only 18% of its games end level, and the top is jammed: Roma, Inter and Lazio, all on 13 points and all unbeaten.
Same points, different routes. Inter have the best attack with 15 goals but have already conceded eight. Roma have 14 for and three against; Lazio, eight and three. Just behind them, Cagliari are fourth on 12 points with the league's best defence, two conceded, having scored only five. A perfectly valid other way to win matches.
Donyell Malen leads the scoring charts with six in 345 minutes, 20 shots and 4.60 xG. Lautaro Martínez, Gustavo Varela and Antonio Raimondo have four each. Lautaro is below his 4.73 xG; Varela is 1.88 goals above his 2.12.
Venezia are still pointless and have scored four goals from 7.40 xG: they create and do not finish. Milan, fifth on 11 points, are the opposite and the league's most extreme case, with ten goals against 7.91 xG.
Ligue 1: both teams score more often here
Ligue 1 · 5 rounds
Both teams score in 60% of Ligue 1 matches, the highest share of the five leagues. And yet its scoring average is 2.84. Both attacks turning up often does not mean plenty of goals: it means they are shared out. Rounding off the picture are 9.60 shots on target and 3.18 yellow cards per game.
Monaco lead with 13 points. Lyon and Paris FC follow on 11, and Lyon hold both the best attack and the best defence: ten goals scored, two conceded. Marseille, by contrast, are second from bottom on three points despite having Amine Gouiri among the top scorers. A reminder that a striker in form does not carry a season.
Five players are tied on four goals: Gouiri, Lassine Sinayoko, Kamory Doumbia, Paris Brunner and Ferrán Torres. Torres does it from 1.86 xG, a +2.14; Sinayoko from 3.59 xG, a +0.41. Once again the same tie hiding two different stories.
At team level, Strasbourg have ten goals from 6.22 xG and Paris Saint-Germain eight from 11.82. PSG scoring below their chances with that squad is probably the most striking thing about the French start.
The five leagues: will these gaps last?
Matches with more than 2.5 goals (%)
BundesligaLigue 1LaLigaSerie APremier LeagueThe scoring order comes out like this: Bundesliga 3.81, LaLiga 3.04, Serie A 2.90, Ligue 1 2.84 and the Premier League 2.82. But notice that the leads do not line up. Germany also tops shots on target, at 10.81, while France leads the rate at which both teams score. Those are three different ways of being an attacking league, and they are not interchangeable.
What is worth following over the coming rounds is simple: whether those averages hold as the samples grow, and whether the teams and players running above their chances are still there. Brighton, Augsburg and the striker Sergio Camello are the most extreme cases on the high side; Sunderland and Venezia on the low.
And one rule that covers all of the above: a goal tells you what happened, chances tell you what usually happens. Keeping only one of the two is like reading half a sentence.
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