Methodology

How MatchScan's numbers are calculated, in plain language.

1. The data we use

Match results and statistics from 31 leagues across Europe, the Americas and Asia: goals, shots, corners, cards, possession, line-ups and each player's output. To compare with the market we use the odds published by bookmakers. Data is updated every day, and on the stats pages every figure carries the date of its latest match.

2. How we estimate a match

• We measure how much each team attacks and concedes, at home and away, giving more weight to recent matches.
• From that we estimate how many goals each side can reasonably be expected to score and, from there, the probability of each outcome: home win, draw, away win, over or under a number of goals, and both teams to score.
• We combine several statistical models that look at the match from different angles, and we check each one against thousands of past matches before using it.
• Corners, cards and shots come from each team's averages and from the appointed referee's tendencies when known.

3. Fair odds and the market

Fair odds are the odds that match our probability without the bookmaker's margin: if we estimate 50%, the fair odds are 2.00. When the market price is clearly above the fair odds, we flag it. That difference is an estimate, not a certainty.

4. AIBG Picks

• Every pick is published before kick-off, with its odds and market.
• It is settled automatically with the official result and stays in the public track record, won or lost. We do not delete picks.
• The track record shows totals, hit rate and profit in units, by month, by market and by league.

5. Limits

• Football has a lot of chance in it: a good estimate often loses and a bad one sometimes wins. Only many matches show whether a method works.
• Late injuries, rotation or a change of coach can reach the data late.
• In leagues with less data, estimates are less precise. The league coverage page shows what is available for each one.

MatchScan is information to help you decide, not betting advice. 18+. Read our responsible gambling page.